Contagion

In The Politics of Autism, I analyze the myth that vaccines cause autism. This bogus idea can hurt people by allowing diseases to spread.    Examples include measles, COVID, flu, and polio.  A top antivaxxer is HHS Secretary RFK Jr. He is part of the "Disinformation Dozen." He helped cause a deadly 2019 measles outbreak in Samoa.

Lena H. Sun at WP:

In 16 weeks, South Carolina infections surpassed the case count over seven months in Texas, where an outbreak last year drove the country’s highest annual measles tally in 33 years.

“This is a milestone that we have reached in a relatively short period of time, very unfortunately,” South Carolina’s state epidemiologist, Linda Bell, recently told reporters in a briefing.

...

Unlike the rural swath of West Texas struck by measles nearly a year ago, Bell said South Carolina is susceptible to sustained transmission because of a dense, relatively under-vaccinated population.

South Carolina has already seeded cases across the country, including some in neighboring North Carolina, which has reported 15 cases. In Washington state, three members of a South Carolina family visited King and Snohomish counties while infectious, leading to three cases there.

Across the United States, more than 500 measles cases have been reported in January, primarily driven by South Carolina’s outbreak, compared with more than 2,000 in all of 2025. As a result, experts fear the vaccine-preventable virus has regained a foothold and will result in the United States losing its measles-free designation.

CNS:

Public health officials Saturday confirmed the new year's second measles case in Los Angeles County Saturday.

The infected patient arrived on Viva Aerobus Flight 518 -- an international flight -- at the Tom Bradley International Airport Terminal B, gate 201A at Los Angeles International Airport on Monday, according to county health officials.

The person may have exposed others to the measles virus at Terminal B between Monday at 10:45 p.m. to 1 a.m. Tuesday.

 

Suicidality

In The Politics of Autism, I write about the many challenges facing people on the spectrum.  Among many other things, they are at high risk for suicide. (In July, the United States transitioned from 10-digit National Suicide Prevention Lifeline to 988 – an easy-to-remember three-digit number for 24/7 crisis care. "

Nuzum, E., Medeisyte, R., Eshetu, A. et al. Autistic traits and suicidality in midlife and old age: investigating mediating effects of mental health and social connectedness. Nat. Mental Health (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s44220-025-00579-0 Abstract:

Suicidality is increased among middle-aged and older autistic adults, but little is known about the underlying factors linking autism with suicidality in midlife and older age. Here we report a cross-sectional observational study of 9,979 adults (76% female) aged 50+ years who completed questionnaires measuring autistic traits, current mental health, social connections and suicidality (suicidal ideation and suicidal self-harm). We use path analysis to explore the relationship between autistic traits and suicidality and the mediating effects of current mental health, social connectedness and male/female sex. Our results find that depression, anxiety, post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), loneliness and social isolation all significantly mediate the relationship between autistic traits and suicidal ideation, with small effect sizes. For suicidal self-harm, male sex, depression, PTSD and social isolation were found to be mediators. We conclude that mental health difficulties and social isolation mediate higher rates of suicidality in 50+-year-olds with high autistic traits. Targeted and individually tailored interventions for people on the autism spectrum across the lifespan are important.

Twice-Exceptional Learners

 In The Politics of Autism, I write about special education and the Individuals with Disabilities Education Act.

Twice-exceptional students are both gifted and disabled.

Assouline, S. G., Schabilion, K., & Trog, M. (2025). Evolving Educational Legislation Transforms Twice-Exceptional Research and Educational Practice. Gifted Child Today, 49(1), 76-84. https://doi.org/10.1177/10762175251381364 (Original work published 2026)

Abstract

This article describes the historical evolution of U.S. federal education policy as it pertains to the constructs of disability and giftedness, which were originally treated as distinct domains. However, policy shifts and research initiatives revealed the intersection of the two domains, which led to recognition of twice-exceptional individuals as learners with unique needs related to talent development. Evolving definitions and educational practice shaped two decades of research. A case-example highlights the importance of comprehensive psychoeducational evaluations to understand the nuanced educational and social-emotional needs of twice-exceptional learners. Seven recommendations focus on strength-based approaches to educational practice.

From the article (see references in link above):

The preceding discussion highlights our evolving understanding of twice-exceptionality and makes salient the importance of evidence-based approaches to identification and intervention. The following, grounded in more than two decades of research and clinical experience, provide guidelines for practitioners and policymakers that align with the goals of the Javits Act: to increase educational access and talent development for underserved learners.

(1) Conduct comprehensive individual evaluations to reveal both intraindividual (i.e., relative) and interindividual (i.e., absolute or normative) strengths and challenges. Do not rely on interindividual differences as the sole determinant of the presence of a disorder. Reliance on only interindividual differences increases the likelihood of missed or misdiagnosis of twice-exceptional students (Assouline et al., 2010; Maddocks, 2018; Schabilion, 2020). Intraindividual differences can reveal the student’srelative weaknesses in academic performance, which may warrant accommodations and/or interventions to address the challenges.

(2) Recognize that the high likelihood of co-occurring diagnoses among twice-exceptional students may further complicate diagnosis and intervention, as well as research, with these students. Schabilion (2020) found that 60% of her analytic sample of individuals with SLD-WL also had a diagnosis of ADHD, which may have conflated findings regarding psychosocial profiles.

(3) Prioritize domain-specific data when making decisions regarding programming and services, especially talent development opportunities, for twice-exceptional students. Because of the frequent intraindividual variation within twiceexceptional students’ profiles, use of overall composite scores that integrate multiple domains will prevent thorough understanding of twice-exceptional students’ strengths and weaknesses. For example, use of the Full Scale IQ as an eligibility criterion for talent development programs is likely to exclude twice-exceptional students because of their weaknesses in working memory and processing speed (Assouline et al., 2010; Schabilion, 2020).

(4) Thoroughly explore the student’s individual strengths and weaknesses to avoid misattributing the origin of difficulties to attitude or behavior. Often, observed behaviors that adults describe as “laziness” or lack of motivation reflect skill deficits that are overshadowed by strengths (Assouline et al., 2010); yet these deficits require intervention.

(5) Understand the interplay between psychosocial skills and academic achievement and provide supportive learning environments (Doobay et al., 2014).

(6) Consider academic acceleration, including subject and/or whole-grade acceleration, as a talent development intervention for twiceexceptional students. However, as with all acceleration decisions, a child-study team must consider the individual student’s readiness vis` a-vis the diagnosis and domain-specific strengths as well as the learning environment (LeBeau et al., 2025).

(7) Recognize the complex mental health concerns when high cognitive ability and neurodevelopmental diagnoses intersect (Casten et al., 2023).

588 Measles Cases

In The Politics of Autism, I analyze the myth that vaccines cause autism. This bogus idea can hurt people by allowing diseases to spread.    Examples include measles, COVID, flu, and polio.  A top antivaxxer is HHS Secretary RFK Jr. He is part of the "Disinformation Dozen." He helped cause a deadly 2019 measles outbreak in Samoa.

From CDC:

As of January 29, 2026, 588 confirmed* measles cases were reported in the United States in 2026. Among these, 585 measles cases were reported by 17 jurisdictions: Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Kentucky, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, South Carolina, South Dakota, Utah, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin. A total of 3 measles cases were reported among international visitors to the United States.

There have been 2 new outbreaks** reported in 2026, and 94% of confirmed cases (550 of 588) are outbreak-associated (8 from outbreaks in 2026 and 542 from outbreaks that started in 2025).

That is more than in all of 2024. 

RFK Jr Stacks IACC

  In The Politics of Autism, I discuss the Interagency Autism Coordinating Committee and research priorities.

 From the Autism Science Foundation:

Today, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) announced a complete reconstitution of the Interagency Autism Coordinating Committee (IACC), appointing 21 new members while excluding the scientific and advocacy leadership that has historically guided the committee.

The IACC, created through the efforts of the broad autism community’s work with Congress and sustained for more than two decades by the dedicated service of leading scientists, advocates, and public servants, has been fundamentally compromised. The current committee has been hijacked by a narrow ideological agenda that does not reflect either the autism community or the state of autism science. By sidelining rigorous, evidence-based inquiry, this shift will stall scientific progress, distort research priorities, and ultimately harm people with autism and all who love and support them.

“The newly constituted IACC represents a complete and unprecedented overhaul, with no continuity from prior committees and a striking absence of scientific expertise,” said Autism Science Foundation President Alison Singer, who served three terms as an IACC public member. “Consistent with other federal advisory committees under Secretary Kennedy’s leadership, like the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP), committee members have been cherry-picked to reach a predetermined conclusion, not to seek broad, good-faith input from qualified experts and stakeholders.”

This committee does not reflect the breadth of the autism community. It disproportionately represents a very small subset of families who believe vaccines cause autism, while excluding the overwhelming majority of autistic individuals, families, and advocates who support evidence-based science. Notably, none of the advocacy organizations represented on the committee fund autism research. Past IACCs included a wide range of viewpoints and expertise, enabling meaningful discussion of scientific advances and policy priorities. That balance is now gone.

Beyond concerns about expertise and representation, there are serious questions about whether the current committee complies with the law. Federal statute requires representation by leading research, advocacy, and service organizations for individuals with autism spectrum disorder, as well as the capacity to summarize advances in autism research on causes, prevention, treatment, screening, diagnosis, interventions, and access to services and supports across the lifespan. We have little confidence that the current IACC can fulfill these responsibilities or reflect current scientific understanding.

As constituted, this committee neither represents the autism community nor advances its interests. It undermines decades of progress toward evidence-based policymaking and risks reversing hard-won gains in autism research, services, and public trust in science.

O. Rose Broderick at STAT:

“Much like the vaccine advisory panels, which [promote] improper false information, the American people are going to be lied to by the IACC under the wrong leadership,” said Joshua Gordon, the former director of the National Institute of Mental Health and chair of IACC for eight years between 2016 and 2024.

Six people have publicly announced their selection onto the autism committee in recent weeks, including John Gilmore, executive director of the Autism Action Network; Honey Rinicella, executive director of the Medical Academy of Pediatric and Special Needs; Jennifer Philips, founder of Make a Stand 4 Autism; Ginger Taylor, former director of the Maine Center for Vaccine Choice; Tracy Slepcevic, organizer of the Autism Health Summit and host of a fundraiser for Kennedy during his failed presidential bid; and Caden Larson, a nonspeaking autistic man from Minnesota.

 

South Carolina Measles Outbreak

In The Politics of Autism, I analyze the myth that vaccines cause autism. This bogus idea can hurt people by allowing diseases to spread. Examples include measles, COVID, flu, and polio. A top antivaxxer is HHS Secretary RFK Jr. He is part of the "Disinformation Dozen." He helped cause a deadly 2019 measles outbreak in Samoa. He has now hijacked the CDC website -- and the CDC itself.

Stephanie Soucheray at CIDRAP

Today the South Carolina Department of Health (DPH) said the state’s measles outbreak has grown to 789 cases, almost 30 more than the West Texas outbreak that took place from January to August last year and resulted in the death of two school-aged children.

The South Carolina outbreak, which grew by 89 cases in the past four days, is now the largest measles outbreak the United States has faced in nearly three decades.

The outbreak’s epicenter is Spartanburg County, where the virus spread in a series of elementary and middle schools in October of last year. Those schools, many of them private, Christian academies, have largely unvaccinated student bodies. Holiday gatherings and travel accelerated the outbreak.

 Katherine J. Wu at The Atlantic:

[The] U.S. has been weathering a worsening measles situation for years now, as vaccination rates have ticked down and outbreaks have grown larger and more common. In the past year, the Trump administration has made it substantially more difficult for local public-health-response teams to address and contain outbreaks too. HHS reportedly delayed communications from the CDC to officials in West Texas and held back federal funds to fight the outbreak for two months. More recently, HHS pledged to send $1.4 million to address South Carolina’s outbreak, though it began months ago. (One recent analysis suggests that measles outbreaks of this scale can cost upwards of $10 million.) The administration has repeatedly downplayed the benefits of immunization, while exaggerating the importance of nutritional supplementation for combatting measles. Kennedy has also spent decades repeating disproved claims that vaccines such as the measles-mumps-rubella immunization can cause autism. (Hilliard wrote that Kennedy has consistently said that vaccination is the most effective way to prevent measles, but she also emphasized in her email that people should consult with health-care providers about whether vaccination is best for their family.)

Should immunity erode further—as experts watching the Trump administration’s actions expect it to—measles will find it even easier to move across the country, until epidemics bleed so thoroughly together that their links become irrefutable. Already, the nation’s leaders have made clear where the U.S. stands on measles: It is an acceptable norm.

Autism and DHS Forces

 In The Politics of Autism, I discuss interactions between the justice system and autistic people.  ICE and Border Patrol are beating and detaining innocent civilians.  Autistic kids are at high risk.

 Jo Napolitano at The 74:

The Trump administration’s weeks-long immigration enforcement campaign in Minneapolis, which has shuttered schools and terrified students and parents, has left one group particularly vulnerable: children with disabilities. 

...

Maren Christenson, executive director of the Multicultural Autism Action Network, said she lives so close to where [Renee] Good was shot that she’s worried tear gas will seep through the family’s windows from the ongoing protests.

Christenson’s 14-year-old son, Simon Hofer, has autism and she can’t predict how he would respond to an ICE agent.

The boy said he’s worried — not so much for himself, but for his friends.

“I have been feeling angry, scared, sad,” he told The 74 on Thursday. “It feels kind of hopeless sometimes and overwhelming. Friends of mine and classmates are afraid to go to school and so they attend online.”

His mother has told the special education community that even if someone is Caucasian, is a citizen, has a disability and can articulate their challenges, they are not free from peril.

Her advice? “Comply: do what they tell you to stay safe.”

But she’s unsure whether that strategy would work for people with autism who can become unmoored by such an encounter. Stress might hamper their ability to communicate, she said.

“We have held a number of community conversations and brainstormed, asking, ‘What could we do? What are people doing?’” she said. “But the truth of the matter is we are in uncharted territory. There is no guidebook, no best practices for when your city is under siege.”

Curb Your Enthusiasm About Leucovorin

A number of posts discussed Trump's support for dubious notions about autism.

The history of autism "cures" is a history of dashed hopes and frequent danger.

Trump and RFK, Jr. recently touted leucovorin.

 Jon Hamilton at NPR:

All of this is part of a familiar cycle for Dr. Paul Offit, who directs the vaccine education center at Children's Hospital of Philadelphia. Offit says he realized years ago that leucovorin's popularity was far ahead of the science.

"I saw it for what it was, which was yet the next magic medicine to treat autism, in a long line of magic medicines to treat autism that haven't worked," Offit says.

Offit has chronicled the rise and fall of many of those products in his books and blog posts.

"First it was secretin, an intestinal hormone," he says. "Then it was Lupron, chemical castration, antibiotics, megavitamins, nicotine patches, and my personal favorite, which is raw camel's milk."

Leucovorin is likely to find a place on that cautionary list, Offit says, adding that the FDA has failed to protect the public from an autism remedy that "clearly hasn't been well tested to be effective."

...

Decades ago, the drug became a popular treatment for children with Fragile X syndrome, an inherited condition that affects a region of the X chromosome and is a leading cause of autism.

Until genetic tests for Fragile X arrived in the 1990s, scientists used a microscope to look for "fragile" or "broken" regions on the X chromosome. And they found that those abnormalities were easier to see in brain cells grown in a medium low in folic acid (a synthetic form of folate).

"So the very first, and most obvious theory was that Fragile X must have something to do with folic acid metabolism," says Dr. Michael Tranfaglia, medical director of the FRAXA Research Foundation and parent of an adult child who has the disorder and severe autism.

Parents started giving folic acid to their children with Fragile X. When that didn't work, they moved on to folinic acid — leucovorin.

"There was a lot of excitement about that, until people started doing actual clinical trials," Tranfaglia says. Then it became clear the drug was no better than a placebo.

Now, Tranfaglia says, leucovorin is back.

"It's not terribly surprising," he says, "because for every supplement and every vitamin you can possibly imagine, someone has proposed some kind of link to autism."

Usually, though, that someone is not running the FDA — the agency that determines whether a drug is safe and effective.

RFK Jr. Appointee: Make Vaccines Optional

 In The Politics of Autism, I analyze the myth that vaccines cause autism. This bogus idea can hurt people by allowing diseases to spread.    Examples include measles, COVID, flu, and polio.  A top antivaxxer is HHS Secretary RFK Jr. He is part of the "Disinformation Dozen." He helped cause a deadly 2019 measles outbreak in Samoa.  He has now hijacked the CDC website -- and the CDC itself.

 

In December, Kennedy named  Dr. Kirk Milhoan to head the panel that advises the CDC on vaccine policy.

Apoorva Mandavilli at NYT:

Offering a startlingly candid view into the philosophy guiding vaccine recommendations under the Trump administration, the leader of the federal panel that recommends vaccines for Americans said shots against polio and measles — and perhaps all diseases — should be optional, offered only in consultation with a clinician.

Dr. Kirk Milhoan, a pediatric cardiologist who is chair of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices, said that he did have “concerns” that some children might die of measles or become paralyzed with polio as a result of a choice not to vaccinate. But, he said, “I also am saddened when people die of alcoholic diseases,” adding, “Freedom of choice and bad health outcomes.”

In the case of an infectious disease, a personal choice to decline a vaccine may also affect others, including infants who are too young to be vaccinated or people who are immunocompromised. But a person’s right to reject a vaccine supersedes those risks, Dr. Milhoan said.

“If there is no choice, then informed consent is an illusion,” he said. “Without consent it is medical battery.”

Sandra Adamson Fryhofer, MD Trustee, American Medical Association

“The American Medical Association is deeply alarmed by efforts to weaken long-standing evidence-based vaccine recommendations, including suggestions that polio vaccination should seemingly not be routinely recommended to patients.

“This is not a theoretical debate—it is a dangerous step backward.

“Vaccines have saved millions of lives and virtually eliminated devastating diseases like polio in the United States. There is no cure for polio. When vaccination rates fall, paralysis, lifelong disability, and death return. The science on this is settled.

“Moving away from routine immunizations, which involves discussions between clinicians and patients, does not increase freedom—it increases suffering. It puts children, families, and entire communities at risk and undermines the public health protections that generations of Americans depend on.

“The AMA strongly urges policymakers to follow the evidence and the expertise of physicians and public health professionals. Weakening vaccine recommendations will cost lives, and that is a price our nation should not be willing to pay.”

 

Measles Spreading in 2026

 In The Politics of Autism, I analyze the myth that vaccines cause autism. This bogus idea can hurt people by allowing diseases to spread.    Examples include measles, COVID, flu, and polio.  A top antivaxxer is HHS Secretary RFK Jr. He is part of the "Disinformation Dozen." He helped cause a deadly 2019 measles outbreak in Samoa.

From CDC:

As of January 22, 2026, 416 confirmed* measles cases were reported in the United States in 2026. Among these, 413 measles cases were reported by 14 jurisdictions: Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Kentucky, Minnesota, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, South Carolina, Utah, Virginia, and Washington. A total of 3 measles cases were reported among international visitors to the United States.

It's only January, and that's more than in ALL of 2024.

 ......................................................................Year...............................................................................Cases

2026	416
2025	2,255
2024	285
2023	59
2022	121
2021	49
2020	13

Wildfire Smoke and Autism

  In The Politics of Autism, I discuss various ideas about what causes the condition.

A release from Tulane University:

Exposure to wildfire smoke during the final months of pregnancy may raise the risk that a child is later diagnosed with autism, according to a new study led by Tulane University researchers.

The study, published in Environmental Science & Technology, analyzed more than 200,000 births in Southern California from 2006 to 2014. Researchers found that children whose mothers were exposed to wildfire smoke during the third trimester were more likely to be diagnosed with autism by age 5.

The strongest association was observed among mothers exposed to more than 10 days of wildfire smoke during the final three months of pregnancy. In that group, children had a 23% higher risk of autism diagnoses compared to those whose mothers were never exposed to smoke from wildfires during pregnancy.

The study is the first to examine the potential link of prenatal wildfire smoke exposure and autism. The findings do not establish a conclusive link between prenatal wildfire exposure and autism but add to growing evidence of the adverse impact of air pollutants on fetal neurological development.

Here is a long. growing, and probably incomplete list of other correlates, risk factors, and possible causes that have been the subject of serious studies: 

1. Inflammatory bowel disease;
2. Pesticides;
3. Air pollution and proximity to freeways;
4. Maternal thyroid issues;
5. Autoimmune disorders;
6. Induced labor;
7. Preterm birth;
8. Fever;  
9. Birth by cesarean section;
10. Anesthesia during cesarean sections;
11. Maternal and paternal obesity;
12. Maternal diabetes;
13. Maternal and paternal age;
14. Grandparental age;
15. Maternal post-traumatic stress disorder;
16. Maternal anorexia;
17. Smoking during pregnancy;
18. Cannabis use during pregnancy;
19. Antidepressant use during pregnancy;
20. Polycystic ovary syndrome;
21. Infant opioid withdrawal;
22. Zinc deficiency;
23. Sulfate deficiency;
24. Processed foods;
25. Maternal occupational exposure to solvents;
26. Congenital heart disease;
27. Insufficient placental allopregnanolone.
28. Estrogen in the womb;
29. Morning sickness;
30. Paternal family history;
31. Parental preterm birth;
32. Antiseizure meds
33. Location of forebears
34. Lithium
35. Aspartame
36. BPA
37. Brain inflammation
38. Maternal asthma
39. Infertility
40. Ultraprocessed foods
41. Household chemicals
42. Parental psychiatric disorders
43. Fluoride
44. Fatty acids in umbilical cord blood
45. Maternal inflammation during pregnancy
46. COVID-19

 

CDC Official: Losing Measles Elimination Status is "Just the Cost of Doing Business"

 In The Politics of Autism, I analyze the myth that vaccines cause autism. This bogus idea can hurt people by allowing diseases to spread.    Examples include measles, COVID, flu, and polio.  A top antivaxxer is HHS Secretary RFK Jr. He is part of the "Disinformation Dozen." He helped cause a deadly 2019 measles outbreak in Samoa.

He has now hijacked the CDC website -- and the CDC itself.

Sarah Owermohle at CNN:

Ongoing measles outbreaks in multiple parts of the country are threatening the United States’ status as a nation that has eliminated the virus’ spread, but a CDC leader said Tuesday that the potential change is not a big concern.

Tuesday’s briefing was federal officials’ first on a continuing South Carolina outbreak that has totaled at least 646 cases, according to the state’s health department. There were roughly 760 cases in the West Texas outbreak last year, making it one of the largest and deadliest measles outbreaks that the US has seen in decades.

US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Principal Deputy Director Dr. Ralph Abraham, a former Louisiana surgeon general who ended some vaccine promotion in his state, argued at the briefing Tuesday that transmission between these states, as well as other outbreaks, has not been proved. But he also said that the US losing elimination status would not be a grave concern.

...

Asked during the briefing whether he would see that as a significant loss, Abraham said, “not really.”

“It’s just the cost of doing business with our borders,” Abraham said. “We have these communities that choose to be unvaccinated. That’s their personal freedom.”

,

Trial Lawyers and Vaccines

 In The Politics of Autism, I analyze the myth that vaccines cause autism. This bogus idea can hurt people by allowing diseases to spread.    Examples include measles, COVID, flu, and polio.  A top antivaxxer is HHS Secretary RFK Jr. He is part of the "Disinformation Dozen." He helped cause a deadly 2019 measles outbreak in Samoa.

He has now hijacked the CDC website -- and the CDC itself.

Amanda Chu at Politico:

Signs of a new legal opportunity emerged earlier this month when Kennedy removed four childhood vaccines from the routine schedule – a move lawyers say could increase litigation against drugmakers. While patients can still receive the vaccines, they are no longer routinely recommended, giving the secretary a legal pathway to exclude them from the table of vaccines covered in the government-run vaccine-injury compensation program without needing congressional approval. That, in turn, would force vaccine-injured patients to sue drugmakers directly for compensation.

“If they remove various vaccines from the vaccine injury table, that would permit consumers to hold pharmaceutical companies accountable in instances where the company failed to warn that the vaccine causes a harm or where the company could have made the vaccine safer but didn’t,” said Aaron Siri, a trial lawyer who has worked with Kennedy.

The National Vaccine Injury Compensation Program was created by Congress in 1986 after a series of lawsuits against vaccine makers prompted many of them to pull out of the market. The no-fault program provided an immunity shield to vaccine makers while also lowering the burden of proof for people seeking compensation through the program compared to what they’d face in court.
...

The golden age of tort suits, when attorneys had asbestos and tobacco companies to go after, may be over. Tort cases have remained low over the past decade, representing only 6 percent of incoming state trial court civil caseloads in 2024, compared to 7 percent in 2014, according to the Center for Justice and Democracy’s comparison of data from the National Center for State Courts. “The arc of American civil litigation bends not toward expansion but toward contraction,” said Nora Freeman Engstrom, an expert on tort law at Stanford University.

When it comes to vaccines, personal injury lawyers who specialize in using the existing compensation system say most plaintiffs alleging they were hurt by a vaccine are likely to do worse in court. Courts will require a higher burden of proof than the compensation program and damages may be too small for a trial lawyer to be interested in pursuing a case, they said.

“The focus on vaccine injury has been dulled and blurred and politicized,” said Robert Krakow, a vaccine injury lawyer who has worked with Kennedy on past litigation, including suits against Merck over the Gardasil vaccine.