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Monday, March 17, 2025

Research and Opportunity Cost

In The Politics of Autism, I analyze the myth that vaccines cause autism. This bogus idea can hurt people by allowing diseases to spread   Examples include measlesCOVID, flu, and polio.

An editorial in Chemical and Engineering News:

There are serious concerns with hoping this study will resolve issues with vaccine hesitancy. Some may argue that having a perceived vaccine skeptic at the helm of the HHS gives the study a perverse credibility, but this is far from clear. Ironically, the NIH, an agency within the HHS, said recently it is terminating dozens of grants for studies on vaccine hesitancy and strategies that increase vaccination rates. Moreover, the CDC’s study could cause more unnecessary alarm among guardians of children who could benefit from MMR vaccines.

The agency’s decision also looks hypocritical to scientists. The US administration has cut the NIH’s budget, saying that the money is being wasted on what Republican senator Rand Paul called “frivolous” science at the nomination hearing for Bhattacharya. It is easy to make fun of studies exploring the propensity of lonely rats to use cocaine. But scientific research advances by slowly chipping away at uncertainty. So, effectively using funds may mean starting with a specific question on responses in rats and then progressing to human treatment trials.

A sound funding policy also requires an understanding of when replicability is a problem and when it is not. Bill Cassidy, a Republican senator, told his fellow lawmakers at Bhattacharya’s hearing that the issue of whether vaccines are linked to autism has been studied exhaustively, and the science is conclusive. There is no link.

By contrast, where public health agencies need help is understanding how to effectively reach people hesitant to get vaccines and address inaccurate but persistent narratives. In the midst of an outbreak in which lives are at stake, the opportunity costs of studying the wrong question are heartbreakingly high.